Introduction to Influenza Vaccines
Influenza vaccines are a crucial component in the global effort to prevent and control influenza, a seasonal and sometimes pandemic disease. With ongoing advancements in vaccine technology and adjuvants, the landscape of influenza vaccines is evolving rapidly.
Current Clinical Trials
Novavax's COVID-19-Influenza Combination Vaccine
Novavax has initiated a Phase 3 trial for its COVID-19-Influenza Combination (CIC) and stand-alone seasonal influenza vaccine candidates. This trial aims to evaluate the immunogenicity and safety of these vaccines in adults aged 65 and older, comparing them to Novavax's updated 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine and a licensed seasonal influenza vaccine. The trial builds on positive Phase 2 data and includes the use of Novavax's patented saponin-based Matrix-M adjuvant[1].
Moderna's mRNA-Based Influenza Vaccines
Moderna is also making significant strides with its mRNA-based vaccine candidates. The company's investigational seasonal flu vaccine, mRNA-1010, has demonstrated acceptable safety and tolerability across three Phase 3 trials. Additionally, Moderna's combination vaccine against flu and COVID-19, mRNA-1083, has met its primary endpoints, showing higher immune responses against both influenza and SARS-CoV-2 compared to licensed vaccines. Moderna plans to file for approval in 2024 and intends to use a Priority Review Voucher[3].
TRAC478 Adjuvant in Influenza Vaccines
Inimmune is developing a new combination adjuvant approach, TRAC478, which combines INI-2002 (a TLR4 adjuvant) and INI-4001 (a TLR7/8 adjuvant) to generate synergistic immune responses. This adjuvant is expected to be used in a 2025 NIH-funded influenza vaccine clinical trial as part of the CIVICs program, aiming to enhance the immune response against influenza[4].
Market Analysis
Global Market Size and Growth
The global influenza vaccine market was valued at USD 7.91 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.98% from 2024 to 2030, reaching USD 12.58 billion by 2030. This growth is driven by an increase in the incidence of seasonal flu, increased recommendations for vaccination, and surge in surveillance and government support for vaccination[2].
Key Market Segments
Quadrivalent Vaccines
The quadrivalent segment dominated the market with a share of 86.77% in 2023, due to its high efficacy against viral infections, cost-effectiveness, and easy availability. This segment is expected to continue growing at the fastest rate over the forecast period[2].
Trivalent Vaccines
The trivalent segment, while offering limited protection compared to quadrivalent vaccines, is still expected to grow at a rate of 5.0% due to its lower cost and better protection against influenza-related hospitalizations and emergency admissions in older adults[2].
Live Attenuated Vaccines
Live attenuated influenza vaccines, although commercially available since 2003, have not gained widespread acceptance due to safety concerns, minimal immunogenicity, and complex manufacturing techniques. However, advancements like the use of proteolysis-targeting chimeric (PROTAC) technology may improve their viability[2].
Market Drivers and Trends
Increased Incidence of Seasonal Flu
The global incidence of seasonal influenza, with nearly one billion cases reported annually, drives the demand for influenza vaccines. The CDC estimates that there are around 3-5 million cases of severe influenza globally each year[2].
Government Support and Surveillance
Government initiatives and increased surveillance at country and global levels have boosted the market. For example, the NIH launched the first-in-human phase I trial for an investigational influenza vaccine in June 2021, and similar initiatives are ongoing[2].
COVID-19 Impact
The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the adoption of influenza vaccines globally. Key market players such as Sanofi, GSK plc., AstraZeneca, and Pfizer have seen significant growth in influenza vaccine sales during the pandemic[2].
Technological Advancements
Advancements in vaccine technology, including the development of mRNA-based vaccines by Moderna and the use of novel adjuvants like TRAC478, are expected to enhance vaccine efficacy and safety. These innovations are likely to drive market growth and improve public health outcomes[3][4].
Regional Market Analysis
North America
North America leads the market with a 53.35% share, driven by the rapid launch of effective products and technologically advanced vaccine production facilities. The increasing prevalence of influenza infections in the U.S. and Canada, along with supportive government initiatives, fuels regional growth[2].
Key Players
The influenza vaccine market is dominated by several key players, including Sanofi, GSK plc., AstraZeneca, CSL Seqirus, Pfizer Inc., and Moderna. These companies are actively involved in R&D activities, strategic partnerships, and the development of combination vaccines to address both COVID-19 and influenza[2].
Adjuvanted Vaccines: Effectiveness and Safety
Adjuvanted vs. High-Dose Vaccines
Recent studies, such as the one presented at IDWeek 2024, have shown that adjuvanted inactivated influenza vaccines (aIIV) and high-dose inactivated influenza vaccines (HD-IIV) do not differ significantly in effectiveness against PCR-confirmed influenza among adults 65 years and older. Both types of vaccines also showed no difference in preventing hospitalizations or emergency department visits for PCR-confirmed influenza[5].
Future Projections
Combination Vaccines
The development of combination vaccines for COVID-19 and influenza is a significant trend. Companies like Novavax and Moderna are advancing these vaccines through clinical trials, aiming for accelerated approval pathways. These combination vaccines are expected to simplify vaccination schedules and enhance public health outcomes[1][3].
Technological Innovations
The integration of new technologies, such as mRNA platforms and advanced adjuvants, is expected to improve the efficacy, safety, and availability of influenza vaccines. These innovations will likely drive market growth and meet the increasing demand for effective influenza vaccines[3][4].
Key Takeaways
- Clinical Trials: Ongoing Phase 3 trials by Novavax and Moderna are evaluating the safety and efficacy of new influenza vaccine candidates, including combination vaccines for COVID-19 and influenza.
- Market Growth: The global influenza vaccine market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.98% from 2024 to 2030, driven by increased incidence of seasonal flu and government support.
- Technological Advancements: mRNA-based vaccines and new adjuvants like TRAC478 are expected to enhance vaccine efficacy and safety.
- Regional Dominance: North America leads the market due to advanced vaccine production facilities and supportive government initiatives.
- Key Players: Major pharmaceutical companies are actively involved in R&D and strategic partnerships to develop innovative influenza vaccines.
FAQs
What is the current market size of the global influenza vaccine market?
The global influenza vaccine market was valued at USD 7.91 billion in 2023[2].
Which segment dominates the influenza vaccine market?
The quadrivalent segment dominates the market with a share of 86.77% in 2023 due to its high efficacy and cost-effectiveness[2].
What are the key drivers of the influenza vaccine market?
Key drivers include the increased incidence of seasonal flu, government support and surveillance, and technological advancements in vaccine technology[2].
Which companies are leading the development of combination vaccines for COVID-19 and influenza?
Companies like Novavax and Moderna are at the forefront of developing these combination vaccines[1][3].
What is the expected growth rate of the global influenza vaccine market from 2024 to 2030?
The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.98% from 2024 to 2030[2].
Sources
- Novavax Initiates Phase 3 Trial for COVID-19-Influenza Combination and Stand-Alone Influenza Vaccine Candidates. Novavax, Inc. December 10, 2024.
- Influenza Vaccine Market Size, Share & Growth Report, 2030. Grand View Research.
- Moderna R&D Day Highlights Progress and Strategic Priorities. Moderna Therapeutics. September 12, 2024.
- TRAC478 Vaccine Adjuvant. Inimmune.
- New Data Presented at IDWeek 2024 Show Adjuvanted and High-Dose Influenza Vaccines Did Not Differ in Effectiveness. CSL Seqirus. October 18, 2024.