Market Dynamics and Financial Trajectory for the Biologic Drug: M-M-R II
Introduction
The M-M-R II vaccine, a combination of measles, mumps, and rubella vaccines, is a crucial component in global immunization efforts. Understanding the market dynamics and financial trajectory of this biologic drug is essential for stakeholders, including manufacturers, healthcare providers, and policymakers.
Global Demand for MCVs
The global demand for measles-containing vaccines (MCVs), which include the M-M-R II vaccine, is significant and influenced by several factors. In 2020, the global demand for MCVs was estimated to be around 450 million doses, with coverage for the first dose (MCV1) and second dose (MCV2) expected to reach 89% and 85% by 2030, respectively[1].
Routine Immunization and Supplemental Immunization Activities (SIAs)
Routine immunization programs and SIAs are key drivers of demand for MCVs. The timing and scope of SIAs significantly impact the demand for MR vaccines, leading to large one-time spikes in demand and subsequent smaller, permanent drops in measles vaccine demand for SIAs. This fluctuation can result in an increase of up to 984 million doses of demand between 2020 and 2030[1][2].
Market Segmentation
Non-priority M&RI (Measles and Rubella Initiative) countries account for nearly half of the global demand for MCVs, primarily for MMR/MMRV vaccines. These countries are expected to maintain relatively stable demand, although there can be fluctuations of up to 50 million doses per year[1].
Switches from MR to MMR/MMRV
There is an anticipated switch from measles and rubella (MR) vaccines to MMR/MMRV vaccines by 2030, which is expected to add approximately 15 million doses to routine MMR demand. This shift will influence the overall market dynamics and supply chain adjustments[1].
Supply Chain and Manufacturing
The supply of MCVs is concentrated among a few major manufacturers. Two MR products and three MMR/MMRV products account for over 80% of the global available supply. The manufacturing base is complex, involving 15 manufacturers and affiliates. Additional manufacturers are expected to enter the market, particularly focusing on lower- and middle-income countries[1].
Financial Trajectory
Global Sales
The global sales of vaccines like ProQuad (a combination of MMRV) and M-M-R II have shown significant growth. For instance, the global sales of ProQuad, M-M-R II, and Varivax stood at USD 2.368 billion in 2023, with a historical CAGR of 8.03% between 2020 and 2023[4].
Funding Mechanisms
The funding for measles and MR vaccines varies, with Gavi support playing a crucial role. Between 2018 and 2021, Gavi's share of financing for measles vaccines increased, while the country self-financing share decreased as countries accessed Gavi support through MCV-2 introductions. For MR vaccines, Gavi's funding share was around 20% in 2020 and 2021, with significant fluctuations based on campaign activities[2].
Economic Benefits
Investments in measles and rubella immunization have substantial economic benefits. In the United States, for example, investments from 1963 to 2023 in measles immunization are estimated to have prevented 237 million infections and 228,000 deaths, resulting in net benefits of approximately USD 310 billion. Similarly, rubella immunization investments from 1969 to 2023 prevented 193 million infections and 166,000 congenital rubella syndrome cases, with net benefits of around USD 430 billion[5].
Innovation and Future Trends
Vaccine Innovation
Innovative vaccine delivery platforms are being developed to improve coverage, especially in underserved populations. Microarray patches (MAPs), heat-stable vaccines, and barcodes on primary packaging are among the innovations prioritized by Gavi's Vaccine Innovation Prioritisation Strategy (VIPS)[2].
Market Growth Drivers
The biological drugs market, which includes vaccines, is driven by factors such as increasing research and development activities, growing demand for personalized medicine, and rising investments in biotechnology. The oncology segment, though dominant, also influences the broader biological drugs market landscape, including vaccines[3].
Challenges and Risks
Supply Chain Risks
The concentration of supply among a few manufacturers poses risks of shortages, especially if there are unexpected large-scale switches to MMR/MMRV combinations. The timing and scope of SIAs can also lead to significant variations in demand, affecting supply chain stability[1][2].
Regulatory and Production Adjustments
Manufacturers need to adjust their production and registration strategies based on demand fluctuations. Advance warning is crucial to ensure that the available supply can be scaled up to meet increased demand, particularly for MR combinations[1].
Key Takeaways
- Global Demand: The demand for MCVs, including M-M-R II, is driven by routine immunization and SIAs, with significant fluctuations based on campaign activities.
- Market Segmentation: Non-priority M&RI countries account for a substantial portion of global demand, with stable but fluctuating needs.
- Financial Trajectory: Global sales of MMR/MMRV vaccines show robust growth, with significant economic benefits from immunization investments.
- Innovation: Innovative vaccine delivery platforms are being developed to enhance coverage and reduce costs.
- Challenges: Supply chain risks and demand fluctuations pose challenges that require careful management and advance planning.
FAQs
Q: What is the current global demand for measles-containing vaccines (MCVs)?
A: The global demand for MCVs was estimated to be around 450 million doses in 2020, with expected coverage rates of 89% for MCV1 and 85% for MCV2 by 2030[1].
Q: How do Supplemental Immunization Activities (SIAs) impact MCV demand?
A: SIAs cause large one-time spikes in MR vaccine demand and smaller, permanent drops in measles vaccine demand, significantly affecting overall market dynamics[1][2].
Q: Which regions are expected to drive the growth of the M-M-R II vaccine market?
A: Non-priority M&RI countries, which account for nearly half of the global demand, are expected to drive stable but fluctuating demand for MMR/MMRV vaccines[1].
Q: What are the economic benefits of investing in measles and rubella immunization?
A: Investments in measles and rubella immunization have resulted in significant economic benefits, including the prevention of millions of infections and deaths, and net benefits of hundreds of billions of dollars[5].
Q: What innovations are being developed to improve vaccine delivery?
A: Innovations such as microarray patches (MAPs), heat-stable vaccines, and barcodes on primary packaging are being prioritized to enhance coverage and reduce programmatic costs[2].
Sources
- WHO - Global Market Study Measles-Containing Vaccines (MCV)[1]
- UNICEF - Measles and Measles-Rubella Combination Vaccines: Supply and Market Note[2]
- Maximize Market Research - Biological Drugs Market: Global Industry Analysis[3]
- GlobalData - The Global Drug sales of Proquad, M-M-R Ii And Varivax[4]
- MDPI - The Health and Economic Benefits of United States Investments in Measles and Rubella Immunization[5]
