Drug Price Trends for MOUNJARO

Average Pharmacy Cost for MOUNJARO

These are average pharmacy acquisition costs (net of discounts) from a US national survey

Drug Name	NDC	Price/Unit ($)	Unit	Date
MOUNJARO 10 MG/0.5 ML PEN	00002-1471-80	521.00496	ML	2025-01-01
MOUNJARO 15 MG/0.5 ML PEN	00002-1457-80	520.73431	ML	2025-01-01
MOUNJARO 12.5 MG/0.5 ML PEN	00002-1460-80	520.90518	ML	2025-01-01
MOUNJARO 5 MG/0.5 ML PEN	00002-1495-80	521.11022	ML	2025-01-01
MOUNJARO 2.5 MG/0.5 ML PEN	00002-1506-80	521.06355	ML	2025-01-01
MOUNJARO 7.5 MG/0.5 ML PEN	00002-1484-80	521.12277	ML	2025-01-01
MOUNJARO 12.5 MG/0.5 ML PEN	00002-1460-80	515.74770	ML	2024-12-18

Market Analysis and Price Projections for Mounjaro

Introduction to Mounjaro

Mounjaro, also known as tirzepatide, is a groundbreaking medication developed by Eli Lilly, approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes and, more recently, for obesity under the brand name Zepbound. The drug has been making significant waves in the pharmaceutical industry due to its impressive efficacy and growing demand.

Current Market Performance

In 2024, Mounjaro has been a major driver of Eli Lilly's revenue growth. The company reported a 26% year-over-year increase in revenue to $8.77 billion in the first quarter, largely driven by strong sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound[1].

Sales Projections

• Mounjaro Sales: Machine learning models forecast Mounjaro sales to roughly triple in 2024, reaching over $16 billion. In the first quarter of 2024, Mounjaro sales were nearly $2.5 billion, and for the full year 2023, it generated $5.16 billion in sales[1].
• Zepbound Sales: Zepbound, the obesity indication of tirzepatide, is also expected to see significant growth. Analysts project Zepbound sales to range between $2.2 billion and $2.7 billion in 2024. In Q1 2024, Zepbound generated $517.4 million in U.S. sales, exceeding analyst expectations[1].

Pricing Trends

Current Pricing

As of 2024, the price of Mounjaro ranges from $1,023 to $1,135 for a monthly supply, which includes four weekly injection pens. The price can vary based on the pharmacy, dosage, and location[2].

International Pricing Comparison

Mounjaro's pricing varies significantly across different countries. For example, a month's supply of Mounjaro costs $1,023 in the U.S., compared to $444 in the Netherlands and $319 in Japan[5].

Future Price Projections and Trends

Fluctuations and Stabilization

• Demand and Production Adjustments: The price of Mounjaro is expected to continue fluctuating based on demand and production adjustments. If new competitors or alternative treatments enter the market, this could help stabilize or even lower the price[2].
• Expanded Insurance Coverage: As Mounjaro solidifies its position as an effective treatment for both diabetes and obesity, more insurance companies may expand coverage, potentially reducing out-of-pocket costs for patients[2].

Telemedicine and Access

• Telemedicine Growth: Telemedicine is expected to continue playing a significant role in delivering Mounjaro, making it more accessible and affordable through online consultations. Platforms like QuickMD are likely to become more popular, offering convenience and transparency in pricing[2].

Potential FDA Approval for Weight Loss

By 2025, Mounjaro could gain FDA approval specifically for weight loss, positioning it more competitively alongside medications like Wegovy. This approval could expand its use and potentially lead to more insurance coverage for weight loss patients[2].

Market Growth and Competition

Metabolic Therapy Landscape

The strong demand for metabolic therapies, including Mounjaro and Zepbound, reflects a significant shift in the pharmaceutical industry. These therapies are expected to be among the top-selling drugs in the coming years, with the broader metabolic category likely to be one of the top three pharma segments[1].

Competition with Novo Nordisk

Mounjaro is projected to top Novo Nordisk’s megablockbuster Ozempic in sales by 2027 and emerge as the leading drug in the obesity and diabetes market by 2029, with projected sales of $27 billion that year[1].

Supply Constraints and Manufacturing Investments

Despite the strong demand, Mounjaro and Zepbound have faced supply constraints. However, Eli Lilly has made significant investments to boost manufacturing capacity, including a $4.5 billion investment in Indiana and a $1.8 billion commitment to expand its Ireland footprint. These efforts have helped stabilize supply, with the FDA officially removing Mounjaro and Zepbound from its drug shortage database[4].

Financial Impact and Investor Sentiment

Revenue and Earnings Guidance

Eli Lilly has raised its full-year 2024 revenue outlook to a range of $42.4 billion to $43.6 billion, driven by the strong performance of Mounjaro and Zepbound. However, the company has also faced some challenges, including lower-than-expected Q3 sales for these drugs, which led to a slight adjustment in the revenue forecast to $45.4 billion to $46 billion[1][4].

Investor Reaction

The lower-than-expected Q3 sales led to a decline in Eli Lilly's stock price, but analysts remain optimistic about the long-term growth potential of Mounjaro and Zepbound. The investment thesis for Eli Lilly remains strong, with the company expected to continue challenging rival Novo Nordisk in the metabolic therapy space[4].

Ramifications of Explosive Growth

The meteoric rise of Mounjaro and Zepbound underscores the significant shift in the pharmaceutical industry towards metabolic therapies. This growth is not just about Eli Lilly's success but also reflects a broader trend in the treatment of chronic conditions like diabetes and obesity. As these therapies continue to gain recognition and acceptance, their market impact is expected to accelerate[1].

Key Takeaways

• Strong Sales Projections: Mounjaro sales are forecasted to triple in 2024, reaching over $16 billion.
• Pricing Trends: Prices may fluctuate based on demand and production adjustments, with potential stabilization or reduction if new competitors enter the market.
• Expanded Access: Telemedicine and expanded insurance coverage are expected to make Mounjaro more accessible.
• Supply Constraints: Despite challenges, Eli Lilly's manufacturing investments are helping to stabilize supply.
• Market Dominance: Mounjaro is projected to become the leading drug in the obesity and diabetes market by 2029.

FAQs

Q: What is the current price range for Mounjaro in 2024?

A: The current price range for Mounjaro in 2024 is between $1,023 and $1,135 for a monthly supply[2].

Q: How are Mounjaro sales projected to perform in 2024?

A: Mounjaro sales are projected to roughly triple in 2024, reaching over $16 billion[1].

Q: What are the potential future trends for Mounjaro pricing?

A: Future trends include potential price stabilization or reduction due to new competitors, expanded insurance coverage, and the impact of telemedicine on access and affordability[2].

Q: How does Mounjaro compare to other metabolic therapies in the market?

A: Mounjaro is projected to top Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic in sales by 2027 and become the leading drug in the obesity and diabetes market by 2029[1].

Q: What are the supply constraints facing Mounjaro, and how is Eli Lilly addressing them?

A: Eli Lilly has faced supply constraints but is addressing them through significant manufacturing investments, including a $4.5 billion investment in Indiana and a $1.8 billion commitment in Ireland[4].

Sources

1. Drug Discovery Trends: "Eli Lilly's Mounjaro sales projected to triple in 2024"
2. QuickMD: "Mounjaro Price: How Much Does It Cost in 2024?"
3. Genetic Engineering & Biotechnology News: "StockWatch: Investors Hammer Lilly as GLP-1 Sales Miss Forecasts"
4. BioSpace: "Lilly Hit With Lower-Than-Expected Mounjaro and Zepbound Q3 Sales Narrows Full-Year Forecast"
5. Health System Tracker: "How do prices of drugs for weight loss in the U.S. compare to peer nations?"