Market Analysis and Price Projections for the Drug NDC: 46287-0014
Understanding the National Drug Code (NDC)
To analyze the market and price projections for a drug identified by the National Drug Code (NDC) 46287-0014, it is crucial to understand what the NDC represents. The NDC is a unique, three-segment number that serves as the FDA’s identifier for drugs. It consists of a labeler code, a product code, and a package code, each providing specific information about the drug product[1][5].
Identifying the Drug
The NDC 46287-0014 can be broken down as follows:
- Labeler Code: The first segment identifies the labeler, which could be the manufacturer, repackager, or relabeler.
- Product Code: The second segment identifies the specific strength, dosage form, and formulation of the drug.
- Package Code: The third segment identifies the package size and type.
To identify the specific drug, one would need to refer to the FDA's National Drug Code Directory or other databases that list NDCs along with their corresponding drug names and details[1][5].
Market Analysis
Industry Trends
The life sciences industry is undergoing significant transformations driven by digital advancements, scientific innovations, and regulatory changes. Key trends include the impact of generic drugs and biosimilars, patent expirations, and the rise of personalized medicine[3].
Pricing and Access
Pricing and access to drugs are significant concerns for the industry. Nearly half of C-suite executives expect these factors to significantly affect their strategies in 2025. This trend is particularly relevant when analyzing the market for a specific drug, as pricing strategies can be influenced by competition from generics and biosimilars[3].
Competition from Generics and Biosimilars
The expiration of patents on high-revenue products is a major concern, with over $300 billion in sales at risk through 2030. This could lead to increased competition from generic versions of the drug, potentially affecting its market share and pricing[3].
Price Projections
Historical Pricing Data
To project future prices, historical pricing data is essential. For example, if we look at another drug's pricing trends, such as Dapsone 5% Gel (NDC 51672-1387), we see fluctuations in price per unit over time. This can serve as a model to understand how prices might change for the drug in question[2].
Market Forces
- Supply and Demand: Changes in supply and demand can significantly impact prices. If the demand for the drug increases while supply remains constant or decreases, prices are likely to rise.
- Regulatory Changes: Any changes in regulatory requirements or approval processes can affect the pricing strategy.
- Competition: The entry of generic or biosimilar versions of the drug can lead to price reductions as companies compete for market share.
Forecasting Models
Market analysis often involves using forecasting models that take into account historical data, market trends, and external factors. For instance, in the NSCLC market, targeted therapies are expected to see significant growth, driven by the uptake of specific drugs like Tagrisso and Avastin. Similar models can be applied to forecast the price and market performance of the drug with NDC 46287-0014[4].
Example of Price Fluctuations
To illustrate how prices can fluctuate, consider the example of Dapsone 5% Gel (NDC 51672-1387). The price per unit for this drug has varied over time:
- Price/Unit ($): Ranged from $1.37751 to $1.87180 per gram over different periods in 2024[2].
This variability can be attributed to several factors, including changes in production costs, market demand, and competition.
Key Takeaways
- NDC Importance: The NDC is crucial for identifying and tracking drug products, including their pricing and market performance.
- Market Trends: The life sciences industry is heavily influenced by trends such as generic competition, patent expirations, and regulatory changes.
- Pricing Strategies: Historical data and market forces play significant roles in determining price projections.
- Forecasting: Using forecasting models that account for historical data and external factors is essential for accurate price projections.
FAQs
Q: What is the National Drug Code (NDC) and its significance?
A: The NDC is a unique, three-segment number that identifies drug products. It is crucial for tracking and regulating drugs in the U.S. market[1][5].
Q: How do generic drugs and biosimilars impact the market for branded drugs?
A: Generic drugs and biosimilars can significantly reduce the market share and prices of branded drugs by offering cheaper alternatives, especially after patent expirations[3].
Q: What are the key factors influencing drug price projections?
A: Key factors include historical pricing data, market demand, supply chain dynamics, regulatory changes, and competition from generics and biosimilars[2][3].
Q: How does the FDA regulate drug pricing and market access?
A: The FDA does not directly regulate drug prices but ensures compliance with listing obligations and monitors the market through the National Drug Code Directory[1][5].
Q: What role does digital transformation play in the life sciences industry?
A: Digital transformation is expected to boost operational efficiencies and drive breakthrough innovations, including personalized medicine and advanced therapeutic solutions[3].
Sources
- FDA's National Drug Code Directory - FDA
- Latest drug prices and trends for NDC 51672-1387 - DrugPatentWatch
- 2025 life sciences outlook - Deloitte Insights
- NSCLC MARKET - Global Drug Forecast & Market Analysis to 2025 - GlobalData
- National Drug Code Database Background Information - FDA
