Market Analysis and Price Projections for Drug NDC: 51862-0179
Introduction
The drug identified by the National Drug Code (NDC) 51862-0179 is a formulation of butalbital, acetaminophen, and caffeine, manufactured by Mayne Pharma. To analyze the market and project price trends for this drug, we need to consider several factors, including overall pharmaceutical market trends, specific drug category dynamics, and regulatory influences.
Pharmaceutical Market Trends
Overall Spending and Growth
In 2022, overall pharmaceutical expenditures in the U.S. grew by 9.4% compared to 2021, reaching a total of $633.5 billion. This growth was driven by increases in utilization, price, and the introduction of new drugs[2].
Price Inflation Projections
For 2025, the overall drug price inflation rate is projected to be around 3.81%, according to Vizient's Pharmacy Market Outlook. This projection is influenced by factors such as expanding indications for previously approved medications and the introduction of high-cost cell and gene therapies[4].
Specific Drug Category Dynamics
Multi-Source vs. Single-Source Drugs
The price increases for multi-source drugs, which include generics and other non-branded medications, tend to be higher in percentage terms but lower in absolute dollar amounts compared to single-source drugs. For instance, from January 2022 to January 2023, the average price increase for multi-source drugs was 26.0%, while for single-source drugs it was 7.4%[1].
Impact of Generic and Biosimilar Competition
The life sciences industry is facing significant competition from generic drugs and biosimilars. This competition is expected to impact pricing strategies, with 37% of C-suite executives viewing competition from generics and biosimilars as a top trend in 2025[3].
Regulatory and Market Influences
Patent Expirations and New Approvals
The biopharma industry is facing a substantial loss of exclusivity due to expiring patents on high-revenue products, which could impact the pricing and availability of drugs. However, this does not directly affect the specific NDC 51862-0179, as it is a multi-source drug formulation[3].
Pricing and Access Issues
Pricing and access to drugs remain significant issues for the life sciences industry. Nearly half of the executives surveyed expect these issues to significantly affect their strategies in 2025, which could influence pricing decisions across various drug categories[3].
Price Analysis for NDC 51862-0179
Historical Price Changes
While specific historical price data for NDC 51862-0179 is not provided, we can infer from broader trends. Multi-source drugs like this formulation typically experience higher percentage price increases but lower absolute dollar increases compared to single-source drugs. For example, from January 2022 to January 2023, the average price increase for multi-source drugs was 26.0%, translating to a $69 increase per drug[1].
Projected Price Changes
Given the projected overall drug price inflation rate of 3.81% for 2025, it is reasonable to expect that the price of NDC 51862-0179 will increase, though likely at a rate lower than the average for single-source drugs. The exact increase will depend on market competition, regulatory changes, and other factors specific to this drug formulation.
Market Outlook
Competition and Utilization
The market for butalbital, acetaminophen, and caffeine formulations is competitive, with multiple manufacturers offering similar products. This competition can help keep price increases in check. However, changes in utilization patterns, such as increased demand due to specific medical needs, can also influence pricing.
Regulatory Environment
Regulatory changes, such as those related to pricing transparency and access, can impact the overall pricing strategy for pharmaceuticals. However, these changes are more likely to affect branded and high-revenue drugs rather than multi-source formulations like NDC 51862-0179.
Key Takeaways
- Price Inflation: The overall drug price inflation rate for 2025 is projected at 3.81%, which may influence the pricing of NDC 51862-0179.
- Competition: Multi-source drugs like NDC 51862-0179 face higher percentage price increases but lower absolute dollar increases compared to single-source drugs.
- Regulatory Influences: Pricing and access issues, along with patent expirations, are significant for the life sciences industry but may have a limited direct impact on this specific drug formulation.
- Market Dynamics: Changes in utilization and competition within the market for butalbital, acetaminophen, and caffeine formulations will influence the price of NDC 51862-0179.
FAQs
What is the projected overall drug price inflation rate for 2025?
The projected overall drug price inflation rate for 2025 is around 3.81% according to Vizient's Pharmacy Market Outlook[4].
How do price increases for multi-source drugs compare to single-source drugs?
Price increases for multi-source drugs tend to be higher in percentage terms but lower in absolute dollar amounts compared to single-source drugs[1].
What are the key factors influencing pharmaceutical spending in 2023?
Key factors include new drug approvals, patent expirations, increased utilization, and price changes. Specialty and cancer drugs are expected to drive expenditures[2].
How does competition from generics and biosimilars affect drug pricing?
Competition from generics and biosimilars is expected to impact pricing strategies, with many executives viewing this as a significant trend in 2025[3].
What regulatory issues are most significant for the life sciences industry in 2025?
Pricing and access to drugs, along with the looming patent cliff and regulatory changes, are the most significant issues facing the life sciences industry in 2025[3].
Sources
- Changes in the List Prices of Prescription Drugs, 2017-2023 - ASPE
- National trends in prescription drug expenditures and projections for 2023 - PubMed
- 2025 life sciences outlook - Deloitte Insights
- Vizient projects drug price inflation at 3.81% - Vizient Inc.
