Understanding the National Drug Code (NDC)
To analyze the market and price projections for a specific drug identified by its National Drug Code (NDC), it is crucial to understand what the NDC represents. The NDC is a unique, three-segment number that identifies the labeler, product, and trade package size of a drug. For the NDC 42291-0780, the first segment (42291) is the labeler code assigned by the FDA, the second segment (078) identifies the specific strength, dosage form, and formulation, and the third segment (0) identifies the package size and type[5].
Drug Identification and Listing
The drug with the NDC 42291-0780 is listed in the FDA's National Drug Code Directory, which contains information on active and certified finished and unfinished drugs submitted to the FDA in structured product labeling (SPL) electronic listing files. This directory is updated daily and includes data on prescription, over-the-counter, and repackaged drugs[1].
Market Trends and Price Inflation
Overall Drug Price Inflation
The pharmaceutical market is expected to experience a 3.8% drug price inflation in 2024, driven largely by specialty pharmaceuticals, including weight loss drugs and gene therapies. This projection is the highest since July 2019, indicating a significant increase in drug costs[4].
Impact of Specialty Pharmaceuticals
Specialty pharmaceuticals are a key driver of this price inflation. These drugs, often used for complex and chronic conditions, tend to have higher prices and are expected to continue influencing overall drug expenditure. The increasing utilization of these drugs, including those for weight loss and gene therapies, will further drive up costs[4].
Price Negotiations and Discounts
Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program
Beginning in January 2026, the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program will implement negotiated prices for certain drugs, including some that have seen significant price increases between 2018 and 2023. For example, nine of the ten drugs selected for the first year of negotiation had list price increases ranging from 20% to 55% during this period. Negotiations have resulted in discounts ranging from 38% to 79% compared to list prices[2].
Biosimilars and Market Share
Role of Biosimilars
Biosimilars, which are biological products that are highly similar to and have no clinically meaningful differences from an FDA-approved reference product, are expected to grow in market share. While they currently make up about 24.93% of the purchasing volume for originator products and their corresponding biosimilars, they are anticipated to increase their market share as pharmacy benefit managers finalize their formulary strategies. However, originator products like Humira may continue to dominate until biosimilars are mandated at the payer level[4].
AI and Data Trends in Pharma
Use of AI in Pharma
The pharmaceutical industry is increasingly adopting artificial intelligence (AI) in various aspects, including clinical development and data analysis. In 2025, the adoption of AI in standard operations is expected to double, and more companies will rely on external data to train their internal data science models. This trend could influence how drug prices are analyzed and projected by providing more accurate and data-driven insights[3].
Specific Drug Price Projections
NDC 42291-0780
To project the price of the drug with NDC 42291-0780, one must consider the broader market trends and the specific category of the drug.
- Category Impact: If the drug falls under the specialty pharmaceutical category, it is likely to be affected by the projected 3.8% price inflation.
- Negotiation Impact: If this drug is selected for the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program, it could see significant discounts, similar to those observed in other negotiated drugs.
- Biosimilar Competition: If biosimilars for this drug or its therapeutic class become more prevalent, it could lead to price competition and potentially lower prices.
Key Takeaways
- The NDC 42291-0780 identifies a specific drug product, and its price is influenced by broader market trends.
- Specialty pharmaceuticals are driving a 3.8% price inflation in the pharmaceutical market.
- Medicare's drug price negotiation program could significantly reduce prices for selected drugs.
- Biosimilars are expected to increase their market share, potentially affecting prices.
- AI and data trends are enhancing the accuracy of price projections and market analysis.
FAQs
Q: What does the National Drug Code (NDC) represent?
A: The NDC is a unique, three-segment number that identifies the labeler, product, and trade package size of a drug.
Q: How is the pharmaceutical market expected to change in terms of price inflation?
A: The pharmaceutical market is projected to experience a 3.8% price inflation in 2024, driven by specialty pharmaceuticals.
Q: What impact will the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program have on drug prices?
A: The program is expected to result in discounts ranging from 38% to 79% compared to list prices for selected drugs.
Q: How will biosimilars affect the market share of originator drugs?
A: Biosimilars are expected to grow in market share as pharmacy benefit managers finalize their formulary strategies.
Q: How is AI influencing the pharmaceutical industry?
A: AI is being increasingly adopted in clinical development and data analysis, expected to double in standard operations by 2025.
Sources
- FDA's National Drug Code Directory - FDA
- Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program - ASPE - HHS.gov
- 2025 Pharma Predictions: AI, Health Tech, and Data Trends to Watch - Intelligencia.ai
- Vizient Projects 3.8% Drug Price Increase Driven by Specialty Pharmaceuticals - Vizientinc.com
- National Drug Code Database Background Information - FDA
