Market Analysis and Price Projections for the Drug NDC: 47918-0874 (Afrezza®)
Introduction
Afrezza®, with the National Drug Code (NDC) 47918-0874, is a rapid-acting insulin inhalation powder manufactured by MannKind Corporation. This drug is part of the Medicare Part D Senior Savings Model, which aims to reduce the cost of prescription drugs for seniors. Here, we will delve into the market analysis and price projections for Afrezza®.
Market Context
The pharmaceutical market, particularly for diabetes treatments, is highly competitive and subject to various regulatory and economic factors. According to Deloitte's 2025 life sciences outlook, pricing and access to drugs are significant issues facing the industry, with nearly half of C-suite executives expecting these factors to significantly impact their strategies[3].
Current Pricing and Usage
Afrezza® is listed in the Medicare Part D Senior Savings Model drug list, which indicates its inclusion in programs aimed at reducing prescription drug costs for seniors. The current packaging includes a 90-count package with 4 units per dose[1].
Price Trends
Historically, prescription drug prices have seen significant increases. For example, between 2018 and 2023, many drugs experienced list price increases ranging from 20% to 55%[2]. However, the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program, set to begin in January 2026, aims to negotiate lower prices for certain high-cost drugs, including those used by millions of Medicare enrollees.
Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program
The program selected 10 drugs for the first year of negotiation, and while Afrezza® is not explicitly listed among these, the broader impact of such negotiations could influence pricing across the board. Negotiated prices under this program have resulted in discounts ranging from 38% to 79% compared to list prices[2].
Impact on Afrezza® Pricing
Given the context of the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program, it is plausible that Afrezza® could see price adjustments in the future, either directly through negotiation or indirectly through market pressure. The program's focus on reducing costs for high-impact drugs could set a precedent for other medications, including Afrezza®.
Competitive Landscape
The diabetes treatment market is highly competitive, with various insulin products available. The rise of generic drugs and biosimilars is a significant trend, with 37% of life sciences executives viewing competition from these as a top concern[3]. This competition could drive prices down as more affordable alternatives become available.
Regulatory Environment
The FDA's National Drug Code Directory ensures that all drugs, including Afrezza®, are properly identified and listed. This regulatory oversight helps in maintaining transparency and consistency in drug pricing and availability[5].
Price Projections
- Short-Term Projections: Given the current market dynamics and the absence of Afrezza® from the initial list of negotiated drugs, short-term price changes may be minimal. However, as the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program takes effect, there could be indirect pressure to adjust prices.
- Long-Term Projections: With the looming patent cliff and the increasing competition from generics and biosimilars, long-term price projections suggest a potential decrease in the list price of Afrezza®. The biopharma industry's substantial loss of exclusivity, with over $300 billion in sales at risk through 2030, could further drive this trend[3].
Example of Price Impact
For instance, if Afrezza® were to experience a similar discount to those seen in the Medicare negotiations (e.g., a 50% discount), the cost for a 90-count package could significantly decrease. This would make the drug more affordable for patients and could increase its market share.
Conclusion
The pricing and market dynamics for Afrezza® are influenced by a complex interplay of regulatory, competitive, and economic factors. As the pharmaceutical industry navigates these challenges, it is likely that Afrezza® will see price adjustments aimed at making it more affordable for patients.
Key Takeaways
- Afrezza® is part of the Medicare Part D Senior Savings Model, indicating efforts to reduce its cost.
- The Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program could indirectly influence Afrezza® pricing.
- Competition from generics and biosimilars is a significant factor in the diabetes treatment market.
- Regulatory oversight by the FDA ensures transparency in drug pricing.
- Long-term price projections suggest potential decreases due to market and regulatory pressures.
FAQs
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What is the current packaging for Afrezza® under the NDC 47918-0874?
- The current packaging includes a 90-count package with 4 units per dose[1].
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How does the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program affect drug prices?
- The program negotiates lower prices for certain high-cost drugs, resulting in discounts ranging from 38% to 79% compared to list prices[2].
-
What are the key factors influencing the pricing of Afrezza®?
- Regulatory changes, competition from generics and biosimilars, and the broader pharmaceutical market dynamics are key factors[2][3].
-
What is the impact of the patent cliff on the pharmaceutical industry?
- The patent cliff leads to a substantial loss of exclusivity, with over $300 billion in sales at risk through 2030, driving interest in mergers and acquisitions and increasing competition from generics and biosimilars[3].
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How does the FDA's National Drug Code Directory affect drug pricing transparency?
- The FDA's National Drug Code Directory ensures that all drugs are properly identified and listed, maintaining transparency and consistency in drug pricing and availability[5].
Sources
- Calendar Year 2023 Part D Senior Savings Model Drug List - CMS
- Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program - ASPE - HHS.gov
- 2025 life sciences outlook | Deloitte Insights
- Methodology for Identifying Drugs for Affordability Review - HCA
- National Drug Code Directory - FDA
