These are wholesale prices available to the US Federal Government which, by law, must be the best prices available under comparable terms and conditions
Price type key:
Federal Supply Schedule (FSS): generally available to all Federal Govt agencies /
'BIG4' prices: VA, DoD, Public Health & Coast Guard only /
National Contracts (NC): Available to specific agencies
Market Analysis and Price Projections for the Drug NDC: 66794-0219
Understanding the NDC System
Before diving into the market analysis and price projections for a specific drug identified by its National Drug Code (NDC), it's crucial to understand what the NDC is and its significance in the pharmaceutical industry.
The NDC is a unique, 10- or 11-digit number assigned to each drug product, identifying the labeler, product, and packaging[1].
Identifying the Drug
To analyze the market and price projections for the drug with NDC 66794-0219, we first need to identify the drug product associated with this code.
Unfortunately, the provided sources do not specify the drug associated with this NDC. However, we can infer general trends and factors that influence drug pricing and market dynamics.
Market Dynamics and Pricing Factors
Wholesale Acquisition Cost (WAC) and Rebates
The Wholesale Acquisition Cost (WAC) is a critical component in determining the pricing of drugs. It is the list price at which wholesalers buy drugs from manufacturers. For many drugs, the WAC has seen fluctuations over the years. For instance, in 2021, the average percent increase for WAC pricing was 9.90%, which is above the consumer price index (CPI-U) for that year[2].
Impact of Rebates and Discounts
Rebates and discounts significantly affect the final price paid by payers. The Maine Health Data Organization (MHDO) report highlights that rebates can result in substantial reductions in the amounts paid by commercial payers. For some drugs, the payer-paid amounts can be significantly higher than the WAC, leading to higher margins for pharmacies[2].
Generic vs. Brand Drugs
The market is influenced by the presence of generic and brand drugs. Generic drugs often see decreases in WAC, while brand drugs tend to experience increases. In 2021, the WAC for generic drugs decreased in all but one category, while brand drugs saw increases in most categories[2].
Price Projections and Market Trends
General Trends in Pharmaceutical Pricing
The pharmaceutical market is subject to various trends, including the impact of patent expirations, the rise of generics, and the introduction of new therapies. For example, the NSCLC market is expected to see significant changes due to the launch of new targeted therapies and the patent expiration of existing blockbuster drugs[4].
Specific Drug Market Analysis
Without specific data on the drug associated with NDC 66794-0219, we can only speculate based on general trends. If the drug is a brand name product, it may experience price increases similar to other brand drugs. However, if it is a generic or faces competition from newer therapies, the pricing could be more stable or even decrease.
Regulatory and Technological Impacts
Changes in NDC Format
The FDA's potential changes to the NDC format could have widespread impacts on the pharmaceutical supply chain, including pricing and inventory management. This change could be as significant as the Y2K transition, affecting nearly every system in healthcare[1].
Innovations in Biopharma and Biotech
The biopharma and biotech industries are rapidly evolving, with predictions for 2025 including accelerated clinical trial designs, evolving regulatory landscapes, and a rise in precision medicine and AI/ML technologies. These innovations can lead to new drug developments and potentially alter market dynamics[3].
Key Takeaways
Pricing Fluctuations: Drug prices can fluctuate significantly based on WAC changes, rebates, and the presence of generic alternatives.
Market Trends: The pharmaceutical market is influenced by patent expirations, new drug launches, and regulatory changes.
Technological and Regulatory Impacts: Changes in the NDC format and advancements in biopharma and biotech can significantly impact the market.
Generic vs. Brand: The distinction between generic and brand drugs plays a crucial role in pricing and market dynamics.
FAQs
1. What is the National Drug Code (NDC) and its significance?
The NDC is a unique 10- or 11-digit number assigned to each drug product, identifying the labeler, product, and packaging. It is crucial for tracking and managing drug products throughout the supply chain[1].
2. How do rebates affect the pricing of drugs?
Rebates can significantly reduce the amounts paid by commercial payers, sometimes resulting in higher margins for pharmacies compared to the drug's manufacturer[2].
3. What is the impact of generic drugs on market pricing?
Generic drugs typically see decreases in WAC, which can lead to lower prices for consumers and payers. This contrasts with brand drugs, which often experience price increases[2].
4. How do regulatory changes, such as the potential NDC format change, affect the pharmaceutical industry?
Regulatory changes, like the proposed NDC format change, can have widespread impacts on the pharmaceutical supply chain, affecting nearly every system in healthcare and requiring significant updates and recoding[1].
5. What role do technological advancements play in the biopharma and biotech industries?
Technological advancements, including accelerated clinical trial designs and the integration of AI/ML technologies, are reshaping the biopharma and biotech industries, leading to more efficient drug development and personalized patient care[3].
Sources
Wolters Kluwer: "Are You Prepared for a Major Industry Change to the National Drug Code (NDC) Number?"
Maine Health Data Organization: "MHDO Rx Transparency Report_221213.pdf"
TFS CRO: "5 Predictions for the Biopharma and Biotech Industries in 2025"
GlobalData: "NSCLC MARKET - Global Drug Forecast & Market Analysis to 2025"
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