Market Dynamics and Financial Trajectory for Fortical
Introduction
Fortical, a brand name for the drug calcitonin-salmon, is a synthetic version of the hormone calcitonin, which is used to treat osteoporosis. Understanding the market dynamics and financial trajectory of Fortical is crucial for pharmaceutical companies, investors, and healthcare providers.
Market Overview of Osteoporosis Drugs
The osteoporosis drug market is diverse and includes several drug classes such as bisphosphonates, selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs), parathyroid hormone (PTH) drugs, and calcitonin drugs. By 2015, the global osteoporosis drug market was expected to reach $16 billion, with the United States and China controlling 61% of the market share[1].
Calcitonin Drugs Market
Calcitonin drugs, including Fortical, play a significant role in the osteoporosis market. Calcitonin works by inhibiting osteoclasts, which are cells responsible for bone resorption, and promoting osteoblasts, which are cells involved in bone formation[4].
Fortical Market Performance
- Historical Sales: Fortical, along with other calcitonin drugs like Miacalcin, has seen fluctuations in market share and sales over the years. In the early 2000s, calcitonin drugs were among the leading treatments for osteoporosis, but their market share has declined with the introduction of newer drugs.
- Forecast: By 2010, the global sales of Miacalcin, another calcitonin drug, were significant, but the forecast indicated a decline in sales due to increased competition from other drug classes like bisphosphonates and PTH drugs[1].
Competitive Landscape
The osteoporosis drug market is highly competitive, with various drug classes vying for market share.
- Bisphosphonates: These drugs, such as Fosamax, Boniva, and Actonel, dominated the market until the early 2010s. However, their market share declined due to patent expirations and the rise of generic alternatives[1].
- PTH Drugs: Forteo, a PTH drug, has been a strong competitor in the market. It is known for its anabolic effects on bone, promoting bone growth rather than just inhibiting bone resorption[1].
- New Entrants: The introduction of drugs like Prolia (denosumab) has significantly altered the market dynamics. Prolia was predicted to lead the market with a nearly 45% share by 2015 due to its efficacy and innovative mechanism of action[1].
Pricing Dynamics
The pricing of Fortical and other osteoporosis drugs is influenced by several factors, including competition, regulatory environment, and patient demand.
- History-Dependent Demand: Studies have shown that patient demand for drugs exhibits history-dependence, meaning that patients tend to stick with familiar drugs rather than switch to new ones. This inertia affects pricing strategies and market shares[3].
- Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs): PBMs play a crucial role in drug pricing by negotiating prices with pharmaceutical companies and influencing formulary decisions. Their involvement can lead to significant cost savings but also affects the profitability of drug companies[3].
Financial Impact of Follow-on Protein Products (FoPPs)
The entry of FoPPs, or biogenerics, into the market can significantly impact the financial trajectory of branded biologics and other drugs.
- Cost Savings: The introduction of FoPPs is estimated to result in substantial cost savings. For example, between 2009 and 2019, FoPPs were expected to save approximately $9.97 billion, with $5.3 billion accruing to private payers and $4.65 billion to public payers[5].
- Market Share and Pricing: FoPPs can lead to price discounts and increased competition, which can reduce the market share and pricing power of branded drugs like Fortical. However, the exact impact depends on factors such as the size of FoPP price discounts and brand price inflation[5].
Distribution Channels
The distribution channels for Fortical and other osteoporosis drugs include hospital pharmacies, retail pharmacies, and online pharmacies.
- Geographical Variations: The prevalence of osteoporosis varies geographically, with higher rates in certain regions like the Middle East and Africa. This can influence the demand for drugs like Fortical in these areas[4].
Future Outlook
The future outlook for Fortical and the broader osteoporosis drug market is shaped by several factors:
- Pipeline Drugs: The launch of new pipeline drugs, such as odanacatib, is expected to further change the market dynamics. These drugs offer new mechanisms of action and potentially better efficacy profiles[1].
- Increasing Awareness and Diagnosis: Growing awareness and improved diagnosis rates for osteoporosis are expected to increase the demand for osteoporosis drugs, including Fortical[1].
- Geriatric Population Growth: The increasing geriatric population, particularly in regions like Asia Pacific, is likely to fuel the growth of the osteoporosis drug market, including calcitonin drugs like Fortical[4].
Key Takeaways
- Market Share: Fortical's market share has declined due to competition from newer drug classes.
- Pricing Dynamics: The pricing of Fortical is influenced by competition, regulatory environment, and patient demand.
- FoPPs Impact: The entry of FoPPs can lead to significant cost savings and altered market dynamics.
- Distribution Channels: Fortical is distributed through hospital pharmacies, retail pharmacies, and online pharmacies.
- Future Outlook: The market is expected to grow due to increasing awareness, improved diagnosis, and a growing geriatric population.
FAQs
-
What is Fortical used for?
Fortical is used to treat osteoporosis by inhibiting osteoclasts and promoting osteoblasts, thereby reducing bone resorption and promoting bone formation.
-
How does Fortical compare to other osteoporosis drugs?
Fortical is part of the calcitonin drug class, which has seen a decline in market share due to competition from bisphosphonates, PTH drugs, and newer drugs like Prolia.
-
What is the impact of FoPPs on Fortical?
The entry of FoPPs can lead to price discounts and increased competition, potentially reducing the market share and pricing power of branded drugs like Fortical.
-
Where is Fortical primarily distributed?
Fortical is distributed through hospital pharmacies, retail pharmacies, and online pharmacies.
-
What are the future prospects for Fortical?
The future outlook for Fortical is influenced by growing awareness and diagnosis of osteoporosis, as well as the increasing geriatric population, particularly in regions like Asia Pacific.
Sources
- Renub Research - Global Osteoporosis Market & Drugs Analysis 2010 - 2015
- ASPE - Economic Analysis of Availability of Follow-on Protein Products
- Josh Feng - Explaining Prescription Drug Pricing Dynamics
- Verified Market Research - Calcitonin Salmon Market Size, Trends, Growth, Analysis, Forecast
- ASPE - Economic Analysis of Availability of Follow-on Protein Products